How to make good decisions as an investor in an uncertain and noisy world, with Antonio Rico

“For me it is one of the keys to investment. Anything that makes you focus on what is happening today is bad for the future; and everything that makes you focus on your future is good for your present as an investor.”

—Antonio Rico

In today’s episode I once again have Antonio Rico as a guest (@AntonioRRico), whom I already interviewed more than 4 years ago in episode #5 of the podcast.

Antonio, in case you don’t know him, has been investing in the stock market for more than 20 years and has been disclosing investment for almost 15 years; He is the manager of Baelo Patrimonio, a fund that already has more than 5,500 participants and a capital of around 80 million euros; and he is also the founder of Colección Baelo, a small publishing house specializing in modern investment and finance classics.

In our conversation, Antonio and I talked about the behavior of the markets since our first interview and about how to make good decisions with our money in an environment as complicated and uncertain as the current one, and we talked about topics as interesting as…

• Why bonds and gold have not behaved as many expected during the last two years
• What is Antonio’s opinion on dividend stocks, technical analysis or cryptocurrencies
• What does Antonio do to avoid getting carried away by FOMO or panic when the markets experience significant rises or falls?
• In which cases does Antonio consider that Yeah it makes sense to sell a part of your portfolio or change your investment strategy to a more aggressive or conservative one
• What is Antonio’s analysis of the current economic situation and what did he think is the best way to invest right now?

Antonio is a reasonable and sensible guy, who is always a pleasure to listen to, and I think that on this occasion he gives some very accurate recommendations to successfully navigate a period as complex as the one we are currently experiencing… So if you are an investor and want to survive and even come out stronger from this crisis, this is an interview that you cannot miss.

But hey, I prefer not to anticipate anything else and that you discover it yourself, so without further ado I leave you with the great Antonio Rico.

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Episode Links

Where to find Antonio:

Mentioned in the episode:

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Antonio’s favorite Twitter accounts:

quick index

0:05:38 – Did Antonio retire early and move to Malaga as planned?

0:08:10 – How Baelo Patrimonio is doing 5 years after his birth

0:14:32 – How the idea of ​​creating the Baelo Collection arose

0:18:06 – What does Antonio currently spend his time on and what is his day-to-day like?

0:23:36 – How Antonio understands the concepts of risk and volatility and what is the relationship between them

0:29:03 – What is Antonio’s opinion on dividend stocks

0:38:00 – What is Antonio’s opinion on technical analysis

0:42:58 – Why bonds have fallen more than stocks in 2021 and 2022 instead of acting as a counterweight

0:52:39 – Why gold has the same price in October 2022 as two years ago despite the fact that inflation is breaking records

1:00:46 – What does Antonio think about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general?

1:05:11 – How to resist FOMO and avoid making bad decisions during bubbles or bullish periods

1:14:07 – Is it a good idea to temporarily switch to a more aggressive investment strategy during a good economic period?

1:17:31 – Is it a good idea to sell when a negative event occurs and buy a few days later, taking advantage of the drop that always occurs when an event of this type occurs?

1:21:53 – How to avoid getting carried away by emotions and abandoning your investment strategy when our portfolio suffers a significant downturn

1:29:01 – What does Antonio think about the current economic situation, as of October 2022?

1:32:21 – How to know if we are in a bullish or bearish market, and how this influences your investment strategy

1:35:51 – How does Antonio think the markets will evolve in the coming years?

1:39:08 – Is it a good time to start investing or is everything too expensive?

1:44:40 – What does Antonio think is the best investment strategy given the current economic situation?

1:48:34 – Advantages and disadvantages of a Bogleheads wallet vs. Permanent Portfolio vs. Baelo Heritage

1:55:05 – What is the worst historical streak that the different stock/bond portfolios have had

2:01:33 – What economic conditions would be the most damaging for a fund like Baelo Patrimonio

2:04:45 – Do most investors take on more risk than they should?

2:11:31 – How can we know if with our portfolio we are assuming more risk than the account

2:14:48 – What are the signs that we are assuming more risk than the account

2:16:01 – How to adjust your portfolio if you realize you are taking on more risk than you should

2:16:42 – In which case it is convenient to sell positions of our portfolio

2:18:52 – What is the maximum % of our portfolio that we can sell without charging compound interest

2:25:03 – Has Antonio ever sold positions in his portfolio?

2:26:17 – How to distinguish as inverters between signal and noise

2:32:33 – Does it make sense for the average investor who already has a passive and diversified portfolio to continue reading and learning about investment?

2:42:07 – What books on investment and finance Antonio usually consumes

2:42:57 – Which investment and finance authors and popularizers does Antonio follow

2:44:29 – What investment beliefs has Antonio changed since our last interview?

2:47:13 – What are the qualities or character traits that define a good investor?

2:50:51 – What is work for Antonio

2:54:31 – What is money for Antonio

2:56:06 – What is success for Antonio

2:57:36 – What are your future plans?

2:59:31 – What are the 2-3 most interesting books you have read since our last interview

3:04:38 – Antonio’s final tips and recommendations

3:06:43 – Where to find Antonio

3:08:20 – Farewell